The Kingdom’s non-oil exports rose 7.5% YoY during August to reach approximately SAR 27.5 billion (USD 7.3 billion).
This was driven by the country’s re-export operations and a hike in its chemicals production capacity.
Details
Data from the General Authority for Statistics showed that consumer exports declined last month by 9.8% YoY to reach about SAR 93 billion.
This came on the back of a decline in KSA’s oil exports — some 15.5% — to around SAR 65.3 billion.
This is in line with the voluntary cut rates the kingdom agreed to as part of its pact with OPEC+.
At the same time, the kingdom’s consumer imports declined by approximately 3.9% YoY to reach about SAR 65 billion.
So what
KSA’s trade surplus declined 21% YoY to reach SAR 28 billion.
However, this marked an improvement from the previous month’s level of approximately SAR 19.3 billion, which was the “lowest level” since November 2020.
Notably, the Kingdom, the world’s largest oil exporter, is seeking to diversify its economy.
This effort aims to increase the contribution of non-oil sectors to the non-oil GDP, aligning with the “Vision 2030” initiative.
Some context
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for the “largest Arab economy” to 1.5% for the current year, down from 1.7% projected in July.
It anticipates a growth acceleration of 4.6% in 2025, a decrease of 0.1% from previous forecasts.
This was highlighted in the IMF’s latest report on global economic growth prospects, which estimated growth in the Middle East and Central Asia at 2.4% this year, with expectations of rising to 3.9% next year as temporary disruptions in oil production and shipping fade.
Now what
A Reuters survey conducted from October 9 to 22, involving 21 economists, predicted that the Saudi economy would grow by 4.4% in 2025, marking the fastest pace in three years.
The survey has projected a growth of 1.3% for this year.
The experts also expected a “strong performance” for the economies of other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, supported by increased oil production after two years of cuts.
It is worth noting that the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia, has been cutting oil production since late 2022.
However, production is expected to increase in December, which could boost revenues for the six GCC member states.
Crude oil prices are expected to remain broadly low, averaging USD 76.75 per barrel next year, up from current prices of about USD 74.8, according to a separate agency survey.
