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Precious Metals on the Rise
In 2025, the gold spot rate has delivered one of its strongest performances in decades, rising 29% year-to-date.
The rally has been fueled by global economic uncertainty, trade and tariff tensions, and heightened safe-haven demand. Additional pressure has come from rising tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, persistent trade disputes, and escalating geopolitical risks.
The silver spot rate has also staged a significant rally, supported by both industrial and investment demand. Currently trading at $38/oz, it is near multi-year highs and has gained further momentum from tight physical supply conditions.
Trump’s Tariffs and the Gold Market
A major catalyst for gold’s surge came when President Trump imposed a 39% tariff on one-kilogram gold bars on August 8th, disrupting the global bullion supply chain and pushing U.S. futures to about $3,500/oz. This move widened the gap between U.S. futures and London spot prices, raising concerns about logistical bottlenecks and the long-term dominance of the U.S. gold futures market.
Impacts and Market Reaction
Investors have flocked to gold as a haven amid growing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Analysts suggest the tariffs may serve multiple purposes:
- Generating revenue
- Targeting Switzerland’s refining dominance
- Positioning the U.S. for a potential gold revaluation in the future
Meanwhile, central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, underscoring gold’s role as a strategic financial asset.
Silver Market
Despite being excluded from the new tariffs, silver has posted strong gains. By late July, prices climbed to $39.40/oz, the highest level since 2011, marking a 33% YTD increase.
According to Reuters, this rally has been driven by:
- Tight market supply
- Lingering tariff-related uncertainty
- Robust investor demand
Tariff-induced inflation pressures: While silver was not directly targeted by the tariffs, the broader inflationary impact of Trump’s trade policies has boosted its appeal as investors seek to preserve value.
Analyst Outlook
- Gold: J.P. Morgan expects an average of $3,675/oz in Q4 2025, with a move toward $4,000/oz by mid-2026. However, Citi analysts believe gold may have peaked and could fall below $3,000/oz next year.
- Silver: Citi projects silver could rise to $43/oz in the next 6–12 months, according to Reuters. HSBC raised its average silver prices forecast to $35.14/oz in 2025, citing record gold prices, geopolitical risks, and tighter supply, though industrial demand may dip before rebounding.
Industrial Demand for Precious Metals
Gold and silver serve distinct but complementary roles in the global economy.
Gold is primarily an investment and reserve asset, held by central banks as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and financial instability. It also acts as a barometer of investor confidence during economic stress.
Silver, while also a store of value, is far more tied to industrial and technological demand. Its price reflects shifts in manufacturing output, clean energy investment, and global trade flows.
Economically, gold’s value is driven more by macroeconomic forces such as interest rates, monetary policy, and currency strength, whereas silver’s performance blends these macro drivers with the cyclical nature of industrial demand, giving it a hybrid role that links precious metals markets directly to broader economic activity.
Egypt’s Urban Inflation Drops to 13.9% in July
- What: Data from Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) shows annual urban consumer inflation eased to 13.9% in July, down from 14.9% in June.
Nationwide, the annual inflation rate also slipped to 13.1% from 14.4% the month before.
- So What: This marks the second slowdown in inflation after three straight months of increases, driven mainly by a 3% month-on-month drop in food and beverage prices in cities.
Still, prices were 3.4% higher compared to July 2024.
- Now What: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet on August 28 to decide on interest rates.
Last month, the bank kept rates unchanged for the second time in 2025 during its fourth Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
📄 Full inflation data here.
- What: B Investments Holding (BINV) stock jumped about 5% on Sunday morning after the company announced that its subsidiary, B Healthcare Investments, is close to getting the green light to raise its capital to EGP 1 billion.
The move will bring in big-name investors, led by CIB (COMI) and Al Baraka Bank Egypt (SAUD).
- So What: The capital increase aims to fund two acquisitions of hospitals specializing in IVF and reproductive health—one in Egypt and the other in Saudi Arabia, according to Hapi Journal.
The announcement follows a report by Asharq saying CIB is expected to take about 25% of B Healthcare for EGP 250 million, while Al Baraka Bank Egypt would grab 5% for EGP 50 million.
- Now What: Hazem Barakat, Chairman of B Investments, told Hapi that the company plans to set up a retail investment holding arm with EGP 1 billion in capital, and is also eyeing several acquisitions in the food retail sector in the near future.
- What: CIRA Education (CIRA) has expanded into Egypt’s Red Sea region for the first time in the international schools segment by acquiring 51% of the French International School in Hurghada called “L’École Française d’Hurghada.”
The company said in its disclosure that the school’s founder “Bouchra Cherkaoui” will retain the remaining 49%.
- So What: CIRA, Egypt’s largest private education company, operates 30 owned schools and three universities—Badr University in Cairo (BUC), Badr University in Assiut (BUA), and Saxony Egypt University (SEU).
Most of its schools run under the popular Futures brand.
- Now What: The move into the Red Sea region is part of CIRA’s strategy to grow in the international education space and diversify its education investments by targeting more schools in new locations.
- What: The board of Qalaa Holdings (CCAP) approved the fair value of the share, set by the independent financial advisor Graviton Financial Consulting, at EGP 4.5 after the capital increase.
The study showed that the fair value before the increase is EGP 5.27.
- So What: Qalaa’s stock closed yesterday’s session up by about 1% at EGP 3.17, which is still lower than the fair value.
- Now What: Subscription for the new shares will open after the extraordinary general assembly recently approved raising the company’s capital from EGP 9.1 billion to EGP 23.1 billion, distributed across 2.8 billion shares.
📄 You can check out the fair value report here.
- What: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank – Egypt (ADIB) posted net profits of over EGP 6 billion for the first half of this year. Its income from murabaha, participation, and similar revenues rose to over EGP 23 billion.
- So What: These results reflect strong growth in both profits and core revenues compared to last year, with profits up by around 36% and revenues growing by about 48%.
- Now What: The bank will announce its third-quarter results in November 2025, in line with the stock exchange’s requirement for companies to report their financial results every 3 months.
📄 You can check out the full results here.
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